WTI oil has breached the $70 mark, the high point of my 2018 range. As with any prediction, one can't forecast "events" that influence prices. The oil market is probably the most notorious market for having political events influence significant market moves. While the fundamentals have caused prices to move above $60, the $70 breach is a consequence of Trump's decision to abrogate the Iran nuclear deal. This was a no-brainer to predict, as Trump is so easy to manipulate, especially for a puppet master like Netanyahu (Iran is the big prize for Neocons and Israel).
Interestingly, there was a fairly significant rise in oil inventory last week, and if today's data show another build, then prices will be pitted between the fundamentals and the geopolitics. Fundamentals will win in the long run, but the geopolitics can wreak havoc on supply in the short run. That said, Trump's decision is going to compound the economic issues surrounding his re-election bid for 2020. I've predicted (elsewhere) that his tax cuts and spending increases near the end of the business cycle will lead to a recession toward the end of 2019. In my view, the juiced up economy will cause the Fed to raise rates faster than expected, generating a slowdown as we move into the 2020 election cycle. However, if the decision to rescind the Iran deal maintains oil prices above $70, higher gasoline prices will take a bite out of the tax cut stimulus.
One way (high interest rates) or another (high gas prices), the US economy is in for a slowdown when 2020 rolls around. If this is the case, Trump might have a "Jimmy Carter experience." In 1979, Carter appointed Paul Volcker as Chair of the Fed, and while he initially supported Volcker's policy (higher interest rates) to restrain inflation, realizing the impact would hit during the 1980 election year, he pushed Volcker to reverse policy, too late of course...
No comments:
Post a Comment