Wednesday, December 20, 2017

Evaluating my 2017 forecast

It's been awhile--I had an overwhelming semester...

There are a few articles I came across over the past two months that I want to address at some point in the next few weeks, but for now I simply wanted to review my 2017 oil price forecast.

I started the year off with a fairly conservative range of $30 to $70 for WTI oil, but as I gained more confidence in my overall assessment of the market, I tightened that range to $40 to $60 in this February 15th post.  WTI hit a low of $43 in late June, and a high of $59 November 24th.  I think it's safe to say I nailed it. 

Within the next month I will provide my forecast for 2018.  I do think there is a solid floor in the low $50 range, but more on that later.

Cowabunga and Happy Holidays!