While I did not formally make a prediction on oil prices this year, the same forces I've described have continued to play out: since the WTI oil market is dominated by speculators, every attempt to push prices higher ends in a collapse when inventories "unexpectedly" rise.
In mid April, based on geopolitical issues, WTI was trending toward $70, driven by speculative bulls of course. As inventories started rising, the bulls pulled back starting in late April. And now, as this Wall Street Journal article suggests, oil is on the verge of a bear market, approaching $50.
Despite our president's attempt to extol the virtues of "molecules of freedom," fossil fuels, oil especially, are facing long term headwinds of green energy that will keep prices in check. However, I doubt this will dispel the best efforts of Hedge Fund speculators to hype another oil bubble....
Good luck fellas.
