Nothing earth-shattering to report; it's the same 'ol, same 'ol....
After breaching $70--the top end of my prediction for WTI this year, we are now seeing the usual pull-back in prices which is, as usual, being driven by Hedge Funds. As it became apparent a peak was reached in mid-July (just over $74), the hedgies unloaded 178 million (paper) barrels of oil the week of July 17th (see this Reuters article).
Adding insult to injury, this week's inventory data showed an unexpected rise: the "consensus" was a draw of about 2.5 million barrels, however inventories rose by 6.8 million, which was the third increase in the past five weeks.
As we move out of the summer driving season, I think it's safe to say WTI will remain in my predicted trading range for the remainder of the year (always with the caveat no unexpected geopolitical event occurs...).
Moving forward, I have been meaning to write some posts on the economy in general. As I mentioned in a previous post, I expect a recession sometime in late 2019 or early 2020. I will expand on those thoughts in the near future.
