Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Ireland in spring

We (the wife and another couple) took advantage of spring break this year and spent a week in Ireland. It was my third trip there, and I've never had a bad experience.  Beautiful land and beautiful people.

One of the most spectacular drives we experienced was through Doolough Valley (picture).  While the scenery was serene and idyllic, this particular place has a not-so-serene past.

Hundreds of Irish died in this valley in 1849 while seeking relief during the great famine.  A plaque commemorates the tragedy, and it includes the following quote from Gandhi:
"How can men feel themselves honoured by the humiliation of their fellow beings?"
 The juxtaposition of the serenity and tragedy is remindful  for us not to take for granted that which we have.

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

A little validation

From Bloomberg.com this morning, Barclay analyst Kevin Norrish stated that oil and copper are at risk of a steep pull-back in prices :
"Given that recent price appreciation does not seem to be very well founded in improving fundamentals, and that upward trends may prove difficult to sustain, the risk is growing that any setback will result in a rush for the exits that could again lead commodity prices to overshoot to the downside."
It's always risky trying to call turns in the market and to what extent prices will move, but it is pretty clear that speculators are the main force behind price movements.

Another piece published the day before on Bloomberg provided interesting evidence on the underlying cause--it was not that investors were making bets on higher prices, rather, as the article stated, the recent price uptick was a consequence of investors with bets on lower prices, fearing the bottom had been reached, needing to close out their positions:
"The rally has come from shorts getting scared out of their positions, and you’re not seeing a lot of money coming in on the long side," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York hedge fund focused on energy. "It really calls into question the fortitude and staying power of the rally."
Investor-speculators who make bets using futures contracts have to close their positions by taking what's known as an "offsetting position." If they don't do this, then oil contracts held to maturity must either deliver oil if you're holding a contract to sell oil (short position), or you must take delivery if you're holding a contract to buy oil (long position). For example, if one bets on falling prices, one "sells" a futures contract on WTI oil, and to close the position--to take profits or minimize losses, the trader must "buy" an equivalent contract.
As the article notes, since February 2nd long positions of investors fell by 971 contracts, but short positions were reduced by over 130,000. In other words, those betting on lower prices, in order to lock in their profits before prices increased, had to close out their short sell positions with buy orders, and those offsetting buy orders are what drove prices higher. This is the problem when speculators dominate markets: if they heavily bet on one side of the market, when they close their positions--so they don't have to deliver or take delivery, it creates an equal and opposite reaction on prices.

That's the kicker: the market is now set up for an equal, opposite reaction--what Barclay's Norrish is predicting, and what I've been predicting. Speculative positions are now seriously net long--there are about 65,000 bets on falling prices and 300,000 bets on rising prices, so their net positions are long by 235,000 contracts. With the continued glut of supply in the real market for oil, the only way these paper bets can be maintained is if more rubes join the bet on higher prices. If this doesn't happen, and prices start to weaken, there could be a run for the exit! That is, as prices start to weaken--as they have in the past two days, in order to prevent further losses on their long positions, speculators will have to sell contracts to close them out. And, just as buying to close their short positions is what raised prices, selling to close their long positions will cause prices to fall further. Look out below!

I'm sure it all sounds confusing; however, there is a very important point here: this behavior will continue--price volatility and bubbles--as long as speculators are allowed to dominate trading in futures markets. Deregulation in 2000 allowed speculators to take over the markets, and it's safe to say that markets are less efficient, not more. It's time to bring back stricter position limits on speculators.

Tuesday, March 15, 2016

The price of oil retreats

As expected, the rally won't last.  After a nice run-up of some $8 a barrel over the past 3-4 weeks, the smart guys have taken profits the last two days.  An article on Bloomberg.com this morning has interesting quotes one can use to support either side--the bulls or the bears.  As a bear, I think this quote is most pertinent:
 “An early rally in prices before a deficit materializes would prove self-defeating,” Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs in New York, said in a report on March 11.
The deficit he's talking about is the supply-demand balance.  Given the current glut of crude inventory, higher prices won't be supported until global supply falls below global demand--a supply deficit is necessary to reduce inventories.  As investors' bets drive up oil prices in the short-term, the "deficit" necessary to draw down stocks won't be created.  Financial bets distort the underlying real changes necessary to bring markets back into balance.

Tomorrow's crude inventory report, which is released at 10:30 a.m., should cause a good jolt in prices--one way or  the other--depending upon the outcome.  If inventories decline, then WTI should see a jump up; if they rise, as they've done for months now, then we'll see a third day of price declines.

Interesting times.  

Thursday, March 10, 2016

A quick commodity update

We are seeing the burst up in prices caused by investors hoping for a price floor and looking to make a quick buck.  I think the market is getting jittery regarding whether or not the price of WTI will hold near $40?  US inventory data from Wednesday showed an increase in crude stocks of 3.9 million barrels, another new high.  Prices will not hold until those inventories start to decline.

It's currently a game by "smart money" investors related to "when to take profits"?  Ride the quick wave up, take your profits, then wait for the next opportunity to jump in.

Finally, here's a good piece on the debt issues in the commodity sector, focused on mining and energy.  Still no news from the farming sector....yet....

Saturday, March 5, 2016

The Yin-Yang of Oil Prices

We are about to get a first test of the hypothesis I outlined in "The Oil Bubble and Bust":

"Assuming no unforeseen changes in markets (like a serious Middle East “event”), the glut in global markets will keep a lid on prices well into 2017, but volatility will reign because there’s no other way to make a quick buck when interest rates are zero and heading negative.  “Smart” investors--those who think they can time markets—will jump back in at the slightest indication of “good news.”  For example, if central banks announce another attempt to save the markets or a group of producers attempt to curtail production, there will be a quick jump back up in prices, only to be brought down by the reality of “pork oil”—the glut in global inventory and supply."

The price of WTI crude has increased by about 15% since then, currently sitting near $35/barrel. There was an interesting piece by Liam Denning on Bloomberg.com yesterday which puts numbers and data to my view: The Spring Oil Rally Redux

The important takeaways:

  1. Despite the rise in price, the inventory build (in oil and gasoline) continues in the US and Europe.
  2. While demand is rising somewhat, it is still insufficient to draw down inventories.
  3. The key point: there has been a spike in the bets on higher prices by hedge funds and other investors in the futures markets (last graph).
I expect the "smart" investors will take their profits this coming week...but the yin-yang will continue.


On the Yin side, noted investor Jim Rogers has stated there is a 100% chance of a recession within the next year. While Rogers doesn't state what will cause the recession, certainly the oil sector is one of the keys, and the pain continues build.  Bloomberg.com posted a great graphic of the rise and fall of oil rigs over the past five years HERE.  And the pain will continue because, as Leonard Brecken at Oil.com shows, imports continue to grow as domestic production falls--the Saudis want to kill the shale competition.

On the Yang side, the most recent jobs report was positive, and much of the growth came from services related to consumer spending.  The savings at the pump are helping, BUT consumer confidence just registered its lowest level for the year.  Oops! This was supposed to be the positive paragraph...

So, my view hasn't changed.  I believe the Yin wins out, and the debt-deflationary forces overwhelm the boost on consumer spending from lower gas prices.  Stay tuned....