Keeping up with the daily chaos is difficult, but I suppose that's the M.O for the Epstein Class--keep everyone chasing ledes while they rape and plunder. That said, in today's first installment:
- The TACO Index is flashing red.
- "The Trump Doctrine", one analysts attempt to determine where a US landing might occur.
- Your daily fraud take.
- Propaganda
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As I mentioned the other day, Deutsche Bank created what it called The Pressure Index, but what is commonly referred to as The TACO Index. The index is comprised of the economic factors that dominate Trump's decision making: stock prices, oi prices, interest rates, and inflation. I don't have access to the current index, but we can certainly find the movements of its components.
The S&P 500 fell 1.75% yesterday and is down another 1% as of 10 a.m. Oil ended yesterday's close at $93 and is currently trading at $98. The 10-year T-bond yield is nearing 4.5%, which is the highest it's been since last July.
All signs point to a TACO moment today. However, investors aren't stupid. Trump's comment yesterday about extending the deadline for bombing Iran's oil infrastructure was another attempt to reverse the rising TACO trend, and while oil prices did reverse for a brief period, they turned back up toward the end of the day. If Trump wants to move markets today, it's going to take something a little more believable. Will he announce, while looking in the mirror, "We have an agreement"? Stay tuned.
The Trump Doctrine
There has been so much chatter about the movement of elite US military units to the Middle East conflict zone, and most of the speculation surrounds Kharg Island as the focal point as its Iran's most important oil export terminal. Given the highly publicized (for military operations at least) talk, other analysts have been trying to decipher what the "real" objective might be? I've been thinking about this myself. Fortunately, in my morning news feed is a fairly good analysis of where the US military might land. I have no idea who the author is or his qualifications, but it is well-reasoned. His description of the doctrine:
Taking audacious risks, making the operation a media spectacle, not
justifying or making the case for action or spending political capital
beforehand, and letting success justify itself post hoc. Before taking
the big gamble, the Trump doctrine is all about staying out of the range
of the enemy whenever possible. The Trump doctrine is more conservative
prior to action and shifts to being more audacious during it.
He supports this with a look at previous Trump military adventures. The most obvious was the last bombing of Iran. Trump declared Iran's nuclear ambitions were obliterated and the mission was a resounding success. What is lesser known about this is the agreement from both sides to allow Iran to bomb a US base in Qatar in response, AFTER US military personnel evacuated it.
At any rate, the author suggests a very likely target for the US is a more isolated area of Iran that is situated outside of the Strait of Hormuz, near the the Pakistan border--currently a US ally after we helped depose and jail Imran Khan the unfriendly former PM--Chabahar Bay. It's an interesting argument, and you can read the full analysis HERE.
Your daily fraud take
In relation to the insider billion dollar gains from Trump's claim of negotiations last week, the trades that were made 10-15 minutes before his announcement, this Irish, Russia-based journalist tweeted this interesting parallel to pre-Putin Russia:
In 1990s Russia, access to power (such as the so-called "Semibankirschina" of Boris Berezovsky, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Mikhail Fridman and friends) meant access to information. Those close to the Kremlin or state banks could see devaluations coming, understand when policy would shift, predict when borrowing would collapse or when assets were about to be handed over. They positioned accordingly and made enormous profits while ordinary Russians and the real economy got crushed.
That was how the system worked. The same networks that benefited from insider knowledge also ended up acquiring state assets through schemes like loans-for-shares, locking in their positions for decades. Most of them still hold these assets today.
This reminded me of a presentation by a Russian economist in the early 2000s about Russia's economic development or lack thereof. He described how the (mafia) oligarchs used Russian industries to syphon off for themselves. As he explained, rather than invest to expand and grow, they invested only the minimal amounts to maintain production levels. Most of these oligarchs had ties with west, and I'd argue this is what supported Putin's rise, as he is a Russian nationalist. He "putsched" out these corrupt oligarchs and replaced many with his own corrupt oligarchs; but at least they were now his, focused on Russian interests, not the west.
Unfortunately, X won't let me embed the tweet, but you can find the author here: @BrianMcDonaldIE
Propaganda
I've argued that Q-Anon was a gigantic Psy-Op, designed to capture a significant portion of the population disaffected by the so-called two-party system. The idea pushed by Q-Anon was Trump and his "white hats" were going to take down the Pizza Gate child-rapist empire. All of the evil democrats would be tried and hanged at Guantanamo. After Trump's loss in 2020, MAGA moved off of traditional social media spaces, creating their own like Truth Social and "underground" echo chambers on platforms like Rumble. This has essentially created a way to control the information that MAGA receives.
So, folks wonder, given the blatant fraud, manipulation, outright lying, why does MAGA still support this guy? I think
this video of a MAGA supporter gives the explanation as I've suggested above, as she states:
CPAC attendee: He is the president of peace. When this gets taken care of, it's going to be peace. I'm on Truth Social, that's the only social media I do... he's got a plan. He's a genius. And we trust President Trump.
Okay, that's all for today folks.
h/BrianMcDonaldIE/status/2037115451936039224?s=20
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